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Purchasing Managers Index for May 2018
Author:admin    Source:Sino-report    Number of clicks :     Update time:2018-06-09 23:13
In May 2018, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 51.9 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from last month...
Department of Service Statistics of NBS
China Federation of Logistics and Purchases (CFLP)
 
1. Manufacturing purchasing managers index
 
In May 2018, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 51.9 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from last month. The overall expansion of manufacturing industry has accelerated.
 
 
 
In view of the sizes of enterprises, the PMI of large-sized and medium-sized enterprises were 53.1 and 51.0 percent, increased 1.1 and 0.3 percentage points from last month respectively, and continued to be higher than the threshold; that of small-sized enterprises was 49.6 percent, decreased 0.7 percentage points from last month, and dropped below the threshold. 
 
Among the five sub-indices composing PMI, the production index, new orders index and supplier delivery time index were higher than the threshold. The main raw materials inventory index and employed person index and were lower than the threshold.
 
Production index was 54.1 percent, increased 1.0 percentage point from last month, and was higher than the threshold, indicating that the expansion of manufacturing production has accelerated.
 
New orders index was 53.8 percent, an increase of 0.9 percentage points month-on-month, and was in the expansion range, showing that the growth rate of manufacturing market demand has increased.
 
Main raw materials inventory index was 49.6 percent, increased 0.1 percentage point from last month, and was still lower than the threshold, indicating that the pace of decline of manufacturing industry’s main raw material inventory narrowed slightly.
 
Employed person index was 49.1 percent, increased 0.1 percentage point from last month, lower than the threshold, indicating that the pace of decline of manufacturing enterprises’ labor employment decreased.
 
Supplier delivery time index was 50.1 percent, decreased 0.1 percentage point from last month, and was close to the threshold, indicating that the delivery time of manufacturing raw material suppliers was almost the same with that of last month.
 
China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)
Unit: %
  PMI  
Production Index New Orders Index Main Raw Materials Inventory Index Employed Person Index Supplier Delivery Time Index
             
2017-May 51.2 53.4 52.3 48.5 49.4 50.2
June 51.7 54.4 53.1 48.6 49.0 49.9
July 51.4 53.5 52.8 48.5 49.2 50.1
August 51.7 54.1 53.1 48.3 49.1 49.3
September 52.4 54.7 54.8 48.9 49.0 49.3
October 51.6 53.4 52.9 48.6 49.0 48.7
November 51.8 54.3 53.6 48.4 48.8 49.5
December 51.6 54.0 53.4 48.0 48.5 49.3
2018-January 51.3 53.5 52.6 48.8 48.3 49.2
February 50.3 50.7 51.0 49.3 48.1 48.4
March 51.5 53.1 53.3 49.6 49.1 50.1
April 51.4 53.1 52.9 49.5 49.0 50.2
May 51.9 54.1 53.8 49.6 49.1 50.1
             
 
 
Related Indicators of China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)
Unit: %
  New Export Orders Index Import Index Purchase Quantity Index Main Raw Material Purchase Price Index Producer Price Index Finished Goods Inventory Index Open Orders Index Production And Business Activities Expectation Index
                 
2017-May 50.7 50.0 51.5 49.5 47.6 46.6 45.4 56.8
June 52.0 51.2 52.5 50.4 49.1 46.3 47.2 58.7
July 50.9 51.1 52.7 57.9 52.7 46.1 46.3 59.1
August 50.4 51.4 52.9 65.3 57.4 45.5 46.1 59.5
September 51.3 51.1 53.8 68.4 59.4 44.2 47.4 59.4
October 50.1 50.3 53.2 63.4 55.2 46.1 45.6 57.0
November 50.8 51.0 53.5 59.8 53.8 46.1 46.6 57.9
December 51.9 51.2 53.6 62.2 54.4 45.8 46.3 58.7
2018-January 49.5 50.4 52.9 59.7 51.8 47.0 45.3 56.8
February 49.0 49.8 50.8 53.4 49.2 46.7 44.9 58.2
March 51.3 51.3 53.0 53.4 48.9 47.3 46.0 58.7
April 50.7 50.2 52.6 53.0 50.2 47.2 46.2 58.4
May 51.2 50.9 53.0 56.7 53.2 46.1 45.9 58.7
                 
 
 
 
2. Non-manufacturing purchasing managers index
 
In May 2018, China's non-manufacturing purchasing managers index was 54.9 percent, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. Overall, the non-manufacturing industry continued a development trend of steady rise.
 
 
 
In view of different industries, non-manufacturing purchasing managers index of service industry was 54.0 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the development of service industry continued to tend to a good prospect. Of which, the indices of transport via railway, air transport, post and express delivery, telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services, Internet, software and information technology services, continued to be positioned in the high level of the range which above 60.0 percent. The indices of capital market services, resident services and repair, were lower than the threshold, and the total business decreased. Non-manufacturing purchasing manager index of construction industry achieved 60.1 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry kept rapid growth.  
 
New orders index was 51.0 percent, down by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and continued to stay above the threshold, indicating that the market demand of non-manufacturing industry kept a steady expansion. In view of different industries, the new orders index of service industry was 50.4 percent, increased 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and was higher than the threshold. The new orders index of construction industry was 54.2 percent, decreased 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to be higher than the threshold.
 
Input price index was 54.2 percent, up by 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, and higher than the threshold, indicating that the amount of increase of input price during the process of non-manufacturing enterprises’ operating activities extended. In view of different industries, the intermediate input price indices of service industry was 53.3 percent, increased 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. The input price index of construction industry was 59.4 percent, an increase of 4.8 percentage points from the previous month.
 
The sales price index was 50.6 percent, unchanged from the previous month, and was higher than the threshold, indicating that the overall level of non-manufacturing sales prices increased steadily. In view of different industries, the sales price index of service industry was 50.2 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The sales price index of construction industry was 52.8 percent, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month.
 
Employment index was 49.2 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and was still lower than the threshold, indicating that the pace of decline of non-manufacturing enterprises’ labor employment narrowed. In view of different industries, the employment index of service industry was 49.0 percent, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The employment index of construction industry was 50.0 percent, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from the previous month.
 
Business activities expectation index was 61.0 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from last month, and kept staying in the high level of the range, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises companies were optimistic about the future market development. In view of different industries, the business activities expectation index of service industry was 60.3 percent, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. That of construction industry was 65.1 percent, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month.
 
Main Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)
Unit: %
  Non-manufacturing
PMI
New Orders Index Input Price Index Sales Price Index Employment Index Business Activities Expectation Index
             
2017-May 54.5 50.9 51.1 48.8 49.0 60.2
June 54.9 51.4 51.2 49.3 49.6 61.1
July 54.5 51.1 53.1 50.9 49.5 61.1
August 53.4 50.9 54.4 51.5 49.5 61.0
September 55.4 52.3 56.1 51.7 49.7 61.7
October 54.3 51.1 54.3 51.6 49.4 60.6
November 54.8 51.8 56.2 52.8 49.2 61.6
December 55.0 52.0 54.8 52.6 49.3 60.9
2018-January 55.3 51.9 53.9 52.6 49.4 61.7
February 54.4 50.5 53.2 49.9 49.6 61.2
March 54.6 50.1 49.9 49.3 49.2 61.1
April 54.8 51.1 52.7 50.6 49.0 61.5
May 54.9 51.0 54.2 50.6 49.2 61.0
             
 
 
Other Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)
Unit: %
  Foreign New Orders Index Unfilled Orders Index Stock Index Supplier Delivery Time Index
         
2017-May 48.5 43.7 46.1 51.8
June 49.8 44.6 45.9 51.8
July 52.1 43.9 45.9 51.7
August 49.0 44.0 45.5 51.1
September 49.7 44.2 47.0 51.6
October 50.7 43.9 46.4 51.1
November 50.9 44.1 46.5 51.6
December 51.5 43.8 46.3 51.3
2018-January 50.1 44.4 46.5 51.3
February 45.9 43.8 47.6 50.7
March 50.4 44.3 46.2 51.6
April 50.0 44.4 46.7 51.5
May 49.1 44.1 46.0 51.7
         
 
 
 
3. Composite PMI Output Index
 
In May 2018, China's Composite PMI Output Index was 54.6 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from last month, and continued to be higher than the threshold, indicating that the overall expansion of production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises has accelerated.
 
 
 
Annotations:
 
1. Explanatory Notes
 
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises purchasing managers. It covers every links of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, logistics, and so on. It is one of the leading indices which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The Composite PMI Output Index, belonging to the PMI indicator system, is a composite index reflecting the changes in the output in current period of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries). The threshold of PMI is usually using 50 percent as the cut-off point for economic performance. If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is in recession.
 
2.Statistical Coverage
 
The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing industry in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T4754-2011), and 3000 samples, as well as 31 divisions of non-manufacturing industry, and 4000 samples.
 
3. Survey Methods
 
PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.
 
The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.
 
4. Calculation Methods
 
(1) Calculation Methods of Sub-indices.
 
The indicator system of manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 13 sub-indices such as production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase price, producer price, raw materials inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, production and business activities expectation. Non-manufacturing purchasing managers survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers delivery time, and business activities expectation. The indicator system of non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 10 sub-indices such as business activities, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers delivery time, and business activities expectation. Sub-indices adopt diffusion index calculation method, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development.
 
(2) Calculation Methods of Manufacturing PMI.
 
Manufacturing PMI was calculated according to five diffusion indices (group indices) and their weights. 5 group indices and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new orders index weighted 30 percent; production index weighted 25 percent; employees index weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weighted 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weighted 10 percent. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.
 
(3) Calculation Methods of Composite PMI Output Index. 
 
Composite PMI Output Index was calculated by weighted summation of the manufacturing output index and non-manufacturing business activity index. Their weights are determined by the proportion manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in GDP. This index will be released since January 2018.
 
5. Seasonal adjustment
 
The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released PMI composite index and sub-indices are seasonally adjusted data.
 
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